{"id":156989,"date":"2025-11-10T07:56:53","date_gmt":"2025-11-10T04:56:53","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buletin.de\/bucuresti\/?p=156989"},"modified":"2025-11-10T15:29:32","modified_gmt":"2025-11-10T12:29:32","slug":"analiza-cifrele-reci-din-laboratorul-electoral-al-capitalei-matematica-partidelor-pentru-candidatii-la-pmb","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buletin.de\/bucuresti\/analiza-cifrele-reci-din-laboratorul-electoral-al-capitalei-matematica-partidelor-pentru-candidatii-la-pmb\/","title":{"rendered":"ANALIZ\u0102 | Cifrele reci din \u201elaboratorul electoral&#8221; al Capitalei: matematica partidelor pentru candida\u021bii la PMB"},"content":{"rendered":"\n<p><strong>\u00cen momentul \u00een care vrem s\u0103 \u0219tim cum vor performa candida\u021bii dintr-o curs\u0103 electoral\u0103, ne uit\u0103m tradi\u021bional la sondaje, considerate \u00eens\u0103 prea pu\u021bin fiabile \u00een ultimii ani, sau la cotele de la pariuri. Acestea sunt prea frivole pentru unii, de\u0219i mai realiste dec\u00e2t sondajele, m\u0103car pentru c\u0103 bookmakerii au de pierdut bani dac\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 gre\u0219it.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Totu\u0219i, ar mai fi o variant\u0103 de luat \u00een calcul pe partea de prezic\u0103tori electorale &#8211; o analiz\u0103 cantitativ\u0103 a rezultatelor precedente. Pentru a fi c\u00e2t mai aproape de adev\u0103r acum putem lua \u00een calcul pentru cursa electoral\u0103 de pe 7 decembrie doar scrutinele din ultimii doi ani, pe acela\u0219i bazin electoral.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Bucure\u0219tiul, sub aspectul votului \u00een principal politic, adic\u0103 pentru partide, ar putea fi calculat \u0219i cu privire la \u201e\u0219tampila\u201d pentru persoane.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cele mai relevante \u0219i recente voturi politice sunt localele din iunie 2024, adic\u0103 votul pentru Consiliul General \u0219i parlamentarele din decembrie 2024.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cu riscurile de rigoare, putem s\u0103 lu\u0103m \u00een calcul \u0219i europarlamentarele de anul trecut, unde victoria a fost ob\u021binut\u0103 \u00een alian\u021b\u0103 de PSD+PNL, iar ca tabloul s\u0103 fie complet, vom pune \u00een bolul analizei \u0219i preziden\u021bialele cu cele trei tururi care s-au \u021binut \u00een noiembrie 2024 \u0219i mai 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Analiza cantitativ\u0103 are \u00eens\u0103 un asterisc mare \u0219i \u00eengro\u0219at: <strong>prezen\u021ba la urne<\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-cifrele-reci-din-matematica-partidelor-pentru-candida\u021bii-la-pmb\">Cifrele reci din matematica partidelor pentru candida\u021bii la PMB<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>200.000 de voturi ob\u021binute, spre exemplu, de USR la <a href=\"https:\/\/www3.pmb.ro\/wwwt\/institutii\/CGMB\/sedinte\" target=\"_blank\" rel=\"noreferrer noopener\">CGMB<\/a> nu e acela\u0219i lucru, procentual vorbind, cu 200.000 ob\u021binute de acela\u0219i partid \u0219ase luni mai t\u00e2rziu la Parlamentare.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0218i totu\u0219i, numerele perfect similare dau dovada unui electorat fidel, care situeaz\u0103 USR pe primul loc \u00een Bucure\u0219ti \u00een 6 din 7 scrutine luate \u00een calcul \u00een acest interval din ultimii 2 ani.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Este totu\u0219i greu de crezut c\u0103 vom avea o mare participare la a \u0219asea duminic\u0103 de vot \u00een mai pu\u021bin de doi ani, deci s\u0103 vedem care ar fi limitele din totalul de vreo 1,8 milioane de bucure\u0219teni cu drept de vot. Aici ne axam doar la votul \u00een func\u021bie de domiciliu\/re\u0219edin\u021b\u0103:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cea mai mic\u0103 prezen\u021b\u0103: 745.000 &#8211; 41% (locale iunie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cea mai mare prezen\u021b\u0103: 871.000 &#8211; 49% (parlamentare decembrie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-ciudata-alian\u021ba-psd-\u0219i-pnl-pe-candida\u021bii-la-pmb\"><strong>Ciudata \u201ealian\u021b\u0103\u201d PSD \u0219i PNL<\/strong> pe candida\u021bii la PMB<\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>\u201ePe cifre\u201d la alegerile locale pentru CGMB de anul trecut, PSD ob\u021bine 192.000 voturi, \u00een timp ce candidata lor, Firea, subperformeaz\u0103 \u0219i ia doar 163.000.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>PNL ia 91.000 de voturi, iar candidatul lor, Burduja, subperformeaz\u0103 \u0219i el \u0219i ia doar 57.000 de voturi, cam c\u00e2t num\u0103r\u0103 ca popula\u021bie municipiul Zal\u0103u.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deci PNL e la mai pu\u021bin de jum\u0103tate din voturile colegilor de coali\u021bie. Aceea\u0219i coali\u021bie PSD-PNL particip\u0103 \u00een aceea\u0219i zi de 9 iunie 2024 la Europarlamentare unde \u00eempreun\u0103 au 220.000 voturi, deci fix voturile \u00eensumate ale cuplului Firea-Burduja, dar sub voturile date separat pentru PSD \u0219i PNL la CGMB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deci doar pe varia\u021bia dintre locale \u0219i europarlamentare, scorul \u00eensumat al PSD \u0219i PNL \u00een Bucure\u0219ti e \u00eentre 220.000 voturi pentru primar general \u0219i 283.000 pentru CGMB.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen mod normal prezen\u021ba extra de la europarlamentare, c\u00e2nd se poate vota \u00een Bucure\u0219ti f\u0103r\u0103 a avea buletin aici, e \u00een m\u0103sur\u0103 s\u0103 afecteze calculele, \u00eens\u0103 vedem c\u0103 cei aproximativ 50.000 votan\u021bi care se prezint\u0103 \u00een plus(doar 3% din totalul prezen\u021bei) nu sunt \u00een niciun caz votan\u021bi PSD sau PNL.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>O ipotez\u0103 ar fi c\u0103 acele 50.000 voturi extra venite de la oameni care au votat doar pentru Bruxelles s-ar fi putut duce de exemplu spre Nicu \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103, care a luat aproape 60.000 voturi \u00een Bucure\u0219ti de la un electorat format cel mai probabil majoritar din studen\u021bi f\u0103r\u0103 buletin\/viz\u0103 de flotant aici.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen plus, acela\u0219i bazin nu a avut un corespondent politic la locale. Poate doar \u00een persoana lui Nicu\u0219or Dan, tot independent, care a str\u00e2ns voturi c\u00e2t au avut la europarlamentare \u00een Bucure\u0219ti toat\u0103 dreapta unit\u0103, sudat\u0103 \u0219i cimentat\u0103: USR+PMP+FD+REPER+\u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103+V.Gheorghe la un loc, \u0219i \u00eenc\u0103 ceva peste.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dar s\u0103 vedem cum se confirm\u0103 varia\u021bia asta PSD-PNL \u0219ase luni mai t\u00e2rziu la Parlamentare \u0219i Preziden\u021biale.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>La Parlament, unde avem o prezen\u021b\u0103 de 49%, care e chiar mai mare dec\u00e2t la europarlamentare, c\u00e2nd a fost doar 44% cele dou\u0103 partide str\u00e2ng aproape 304.000.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deci un pic peste votul luat la CGMB. PSD ia totu\u0219i cu vreo 4.000 de voturi mai pu\u021bin \u00een decembrie fa\u021b\u0103 de iunie, \u00een timp ce PNL cu vreo 25.000 mai mult. Deci diferen\u021ba fa\u021b\u0103 de iunie e dat\u0103 de o cre\u0219tere a PNL, cu un raport de 2\/3 \u00eentre PNL \u0219i PSD.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La Preziden\u021biale, turul 1, cu o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 \u00eenainte avem o prezen\u021b\u0103 \u0219i mai mare, de 52%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Scorurile \u00eensumate ale candida\u021bilor Ciolacu \u0219i Ciuc\u0103 sunt absolut derizorii, de 195.000 de voturi, deci sunt mai slabi dec\u00e2t Firea \u0219i Burduja.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dac\u0103 Burduja (57.000 de voturi) \u0219i Ciuc\u0103 (60.000 de voturi) sunt aproximativ similari \u00een aceast\u0103 ecua\u021bie, la PSD Firea ia 163.000 de voturi, iar Ciolacu 135.000. Deci de aici vine diferen\u021ba dintre scorul prost al PSD-PNL de la Preziden\u021biale, turul 1, din 2024: de la Ciolacu.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Facem un pas mai departe, s\u0103 vedem cum a performat PSD-PNL, alte 6 luni mai t\u00e2rziu, \u00een mai 2025, unde avem o prezen\u021b\u0103 similar\u0103 cu precedentul tur 1 din noiembrie, de 50,5%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Din nou \u00een alian\u021b\u0103, dar cu un cu totul alt candidat de data aceasta, Crin Antonescu: 153.000 de voturi la Bucure\u0219ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Este cel mai prost scor al acestui sezon prelungit de alegeri pentru aceste dou\u0103 partide luate \u00eempreun\u0103. E aproape c\u00e2t maximul PNL-ului, de 116.000 de la Parlamentare. Destul de evident \u0219i de ce, av\u00e2nd \u00een vedere coloratura istoric\u0103 a candidatului.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Observ\u0103m c\u0103 num\u0103rul total de voturi nu e un trend (220.000\/283.000\/220.000\/195.000\/304.000\/153.000) \u0219i fluctueaz\u0103 \u00een func\u021bie de prezen\u021ba total\u0103 la vot, mize de moment \u0219i candida\u021bi.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Acolo unde au candidat doar \u00eempreun\u0103 am avut 220.000 la europarlamentare \u00een 2024 \u0219i 153.000 la Preziden\u021biale turul 1 2025, de\u0219i prezen\u021ba a fost cu aproape 8 procente mai mare dec\u00e2t la europarlamentare. Au c\u00e2\u0219tigat o singur\u0103 dat\u0103, \u00een acel context special al europarlamentarelor din iunie 2024, asupra c\u0103ruia vom mai reveni.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>C\u00e2nd au mers separat, PSD a avut 163.000(Firea) \u2013 192.000(CGMB), 135.000(Ciolacu) \u2013 188.000 (Parlament). Observ\u0103m c\u0103 partidul e de fiecare dat\u0103 mai puternic dec\u00e2t candida\u021bii pe care \u00eei propune, s\u0103 vedem dac\u0103 B\u0103lu\u021b\u0103 se \u00eenscrie \u00een aceea\u0219i linie sau reu\u0219e\u0219te s\u0103 supraperformeze.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La PNL, cam aceea\u0219i poveste: 57.000 (Burduja) \u2013 91.000 (CGMB), 60.000 (Ciuc\u0103) \u2013 116.000 (Parlament). La fel, partidul se \u021bine mai bine dec\u00e2t candida\u021bii pe care \u00eei propune. Mai observ\u0103m o varia\u021bie interesant\u0103 de 60.000 de voturi \u00eentre cel mai prost \u0219i cel mai bun scor at\u00e2t al PSD (135.000\/192.000), c\u00e2t \u0219i la PNL (57.000-116.000).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dar cum cifrele absolute depind de gradul de prezen\u021b\u0103, s\u0103 analiz\u0103m range-urile \u0219i \u00een procente:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PSD<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 14,84% (Ciolacu, noiembrie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai bun scor: 26,56% (CGMB, iunie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>PNL<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 6,62% (Ciuc\u0103, noiembrie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai bun scor: 13,52% (Parlament, decembrie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u0219adar, \u00een general PNL e cam la jumate din scorul PSD \u00een Bucure\u0219ti. Handicap imens pe care \u00eel are de recuperat Ciucu, al c\u0103rui suport politic PNList e (rotunjit) \u00eentre 6,5%-13,5%. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>B\u0103lu\u021b\u0103 \u00een schimb st\u0103 lini\u0219tit \u00eentre 15%-26,5% &#8211; la o \u00eemp\u0103r\u021bire a votului care se prefigureaz\u0103 pentru 7 decembrie, nu trebuie s\u0103 str\u0103luceasc\u0103 pentru a ajunge la fotoliul din Bd. Elisabeta.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-\u0219i-continuam-cu-usr\"><strong>\u0218i continu\u0103m cu USR&#8230;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Au fost \u0219i ei \u00een alian\u021be, n-au avut candidat la scrutinele precedente pentru primar general (l-au sus\u021binut pe Nicu\u0219or), dar sunt cel mai votat partid din Bucure\u0219ti. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>La CGMB iau 200.000 de voturi, la europarlamentare 150.000 (singura dat\u0103 c\u00e2nd ies pe 2, cu Drul\u0103 la timon\u0103 a propos, el nefiind \u00eens\u0103 candidat), la Preziden\u021biale Turul 1 din 2024 Lasconi ia 326.000 de voturi, la Parlamentare iau iar\u0103\u0219i 200.000 de voturi.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Greu de pus \u00een acest calcul scorurile lui Nicu\u0219or de la PMB (iunie 2024, c\u00e2nd ia 350.000) sau Preziden\u021biale T1 din 2025, c\u00e2nd ia 361.000.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>E \u00een mod evident c\u0103 Dan colecteaz\u0103 voturi \u0219i de la alte bazine politice, nu doar USR deci e greu de stabilit componen\u021ba lor \u00een scorurile actualului Pre\u0219edinte. Ori\u0219ic\u00e2t, votul eminamente politic al USR e iar\u0103\u0219i c\u00e2t se poate de fix, 200.000, o dat\u0103 la CGMB (unde erau \u00een alian\u021b\u0103 cu PMP \u0219i For\u021ba Dreptei aka Ludovic Orban) \u0219i a doua oar\u0103 la Parlamentare unde merg singuri.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Tot vot politic e \u0219i la europarlamentare unde iau doar 150.000 de voturi, dar sunt concura\u021bi puternic de \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103 \u0219i Vlad Gheorghe, care au \u00eempreun\u0103 doar ei doi aproape 100.000 de voturi, iar dac\u0103 mai pui \u0219i REPER-ul care a avut \u0219i el 83.000 de voturi \u00een Bucure\u0219ti la acel scrutin, deja dezastrul e complet pentru USR. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dar cel pu\u021bin REPER nu pare s\u0103 mai participe la alegerile de pe 7 decembrie, \u00een timp ce V. Gheorghe da, iar voturile lui \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103 ar putea fi transferate \u00eenspre Ana Ciceal\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deci s\u0103 zicem c\u0103 a fost un context cu totul special acea rund\u0103 de europarlamentare, dar special a fost \u0219i turul 1 al preziden\u021bialelor din 2024 \u00eens\u0103 nu neap\u0103rat \u00een Bucure\u0219ti, unde Lasconi a luat mai mult de dublu c\u00e2t scorul USR de la europarlamentare \u0219i aproape c\u00e2t Nicu\u0219or la PMB sau la Preziden\u021biale T1 din 2025.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Exist\u0103 a\u0219adar aceste dou\u0103 extreme \u00een scorul USR pe Bucure\u0219ti \u0219i o medie destul de clar\u0103 de 200.000 de voturi (la fel cum similaritatea era perfect\u0103 \u0219i \u00een 2020 c\u00e2nd participa \u00eempreun\u0103 cu PLUS, care ulterior devine REPER, cu 175.000 de voturi la CGMB \u0219i 176.000 la Parlamentare). <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Oarecum surprinz\u0103tor este c\u0103 USR reu\u0219e\u0219te s\u0103 creasc\u0103 patru ani mai t\u00e2rziu de\u0219i e concurat \u00een 2024 la CGMB de REPER (care ia totu\u0219i vreo 50.000 de voturi) sau la Parlamentare de SENS (care ia alte 50.000 de voturi) + REPER (care mai ia \u0219i el vreo 26.000 de voturi).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pe procente la USR avem a\u0219a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 19,54% (Europarlamentare, iunie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai mare scor: 35,82% (Lasconi, noiembrie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<p>Deci dac\u0103 la PSD \u0219i PNL partidele sunt constant peste candida\u021bii pe care \u00eei propun, la USR la fel de constant candida\u021bii pe care \u00eei propun sau sus\u021bin sunt peste partid. Au deci m\u00e2n\u0103 bun\u0103, s\u0103 vedem \u00een ce m\u0103sur\u0103 Drul\u0103 se \u00eenscrie \u00een aceast\u0103 linie \u00een timp ce statistica zice c\u0103 ar trebui s\u0103 fie \u00eentre 20-35%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-sa-vedem-ce-e-\u0219i-cu-aur\"><strong>S\u0103 vedem ce e \u0219i cu AUR&#8230;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>La PMB anul trecut cu acel Enache au luat 22.000 voturi, \u00een timp ce la CGMB ob\u021bineau 59.000, deci de aproape trei ori mai mult. La europarlamentare ob\u021bineau, \u00een aceea\u0219i zi, 94.000 de voturi. Simion ia la Preziden\u021biale Turul 1 2024 91.000 de voturi, iar o s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2n\u0103 mai t\u00e2rziu, AUR ob\u021bine la Parlamentare 104.000 de voturi. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La Preziden\u021biale T1 din 2025 Simion \u00ee\u0219i dubleaz\u0103 scorul \u00een Bucure\u0219ti \u0219i ob\u021bine 220.000 de voturi (care e aproape fix c\u00e2t au avut \u00eensumat CG \u0219i Simion la precedentul T1 din 2024, 132.000+91.000).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>De\u0219i nu mai e relevant pentru calculele pe care \u00eencerc\u0103m s\u0103 le facem aici, men\u021bion\u0103m doar c\u0103 \u00een T2 al Preziden\u021bialelor 2025 ob\u021bine 326.000 de voturi care reprezint\u0103 30% din voturi (scenariul put\u00e2nd fi repetat doar \u00eentr-un eventual tur 2 la PMB \u00eentre Alexandrescu \u0219i Ciucu).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Vedem deci c\u0103 la AUR evolu\u021bia e c\u00e2t se poate de clar\u0103, nu (prea) exist\u0103 stagn\u0103ri sau sc\u0103deri de form\u0103. Au fost pe steroizi. Totu\u0219i vedem acel vot politic care evolueaz\u0103 de la 59.000 la 94.000 la 104.000. \u00cen procente voturile astea \u00eenseamn\u0103 aproximativ 8%-12%-12%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dac\u0103 pe Enache \u00eel putem exclude complet din ecua\u021bie (era totu\u0219i un candidat complet necunoscut, votan\u021bii AUR la acel scrutin erau mai degrab\u0103 \u00een desaga lui Piedone), pe Simion versiunea 2025 e mai greu s\u0103-l scoatem din calcul. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Asta pentru c\u0103 \u00eentre timp se \u00eent\u00e2mpla episodul CG, care e extrem de relevant electoral pentru ei, iar candidatul pe care \u00eel sus\u021bin acum nu e deloc mai prejos de notorietatea lui Simion sau CG. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deci pentru Anca Alexandrescu <em>range<\/em>-ul \u00een care joac\u0103 este \u00eentre 12%-25%. Ceea ce e o veste proast\u0103 mai ales pentru B\u0103lu\u021b\u0103 (cu care \u00eemparte un electorat extrem de apropiat \u0219i chiar similar).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Procentual, scorurile ar fi a\u0219a pentru AUR:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 8,17% (CGMB, iunie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai bun scor: 24,8% (Simion, Preziden\u021biale Turul 1 2025)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-in-ce-sens\"><strong>\u00cen ce SENS?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Consilier General timp de 8 ani, Ana Ciceal\u0103 de la SENS vine \u00een cursa din decembrie cu prea pu\u021bine \u0219anse din perspectiva scorurilor recente. Dac\u0103 la localele din iunie 2024 acest partid abia ap\u0103rea, Ana Ciceal\u0103 candida \u00eens\u0103 la PS3, unde lua 24.000 de voturi (mai multe dec\u00eet \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103, de exemplu, care candida atunci \u00een \u00eentreaga circumscrip\u021bie a Bucure\u0219tiului) \u0219i ie\u0219ea pe locul 3, dup\u0103 PSD \u0219i USR; dar \u00een condi\u021biile \u00een care la CLS3 SENS lua doar 12.000 de voturi, la fel c\u00e2t a luat \u0219i \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103 tot \u00een S3 (deci Ciceal\u0103 a luat dublu la PS3 fa\u021b\u0103 de scorul politic).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La europarlamentare l-au avut ca \u201casociat politic\u201d, s\u0103 zicem, pe independentul Nicu \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103 care ia 59.000 de voturi \u00een Bucure\u0219ti. La Preziden\u021biale 2024 n-au candidat (\u0219i nici \u00een 2025), dar contextual i-au sus\u021binut pe Lasconi \u0219i Nicu\u0219or.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Au fost prezen\u021bi \u00eens\u0103 pe buletinul de vot la Parlamentare, unde chiar Ciceal\u0103 a deschis lista la Senat, \u0219i au ob\u021binut 48.000 voturi &#8211; deci dublu fa\u021b\u0103 de scorul Anei din S3 ob\u021binut cu doar 6 luni \u00een urm\u0103. Ceea ce mai \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 voturile lui \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103 nu erau neap\u0103rat de la votan\u021bi f\u0103r\u0103 buletin\/flotant de Bucure\u0219ti, ceea ce e un semn bun pentru SENS. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Totodat\u0103 compararea acestor scoruri ne mai spune c\u0103 nu doar AUR a fost pe un trend clar ascendent \u00een ace\u0219ti doi ani, ci \u0219i SENS &#8211; sau mai specific zis, Ana Ciceal\u0103. De urm\u0103rit dac\u0103 scorul Anei Ciceal\u0103 va continua s\u0103 creasc\u0103 \u0219i acum sau se plafoneaz\u0103 \u00een jurul a 50.000 de voturi\/5-6%.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Este posibil ca \u201cduelul\u201d petrecut la europarlamentare \u00eentre \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103 (care nu era \u00eenc\u0103 SENS) \u0219i USR (unde Drul\u0103 nu candida), s\u0103 se repete cu acela\u0219i efect: Drul\u0103 subperformeaz\u0103 pe 7 decembrie pentru c\u0103 parte din electoratul urban (highly educated, progresist etc) se duce la Ciceal\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Deci pe procente la SENS avem a\u0219a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 5,64% (Parlament, decembrie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai bun scor: 7,71% (\u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103, EP iunie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-nu-prea-merge-sos-in-salata-asta-de-fructe\"><strong>Nu prea merge SOS \u00een salata asta de fructe&#8230;<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p><em>En passant<\/em> a\u0219 aminti \u0219i de SOS, care de\u0219i nu are un candidat \u201eb\u0103tut \u00een cuie\u201d, m\u0103car avem ni\u0219te cifre de analizat pentru c\u0103 au candidat ca partid at\u00e2t la CGMB \u0219i europarlamentare (unde au ob\u021binut acelea\u0219i 30.000 de voturi &#8211; deci electorat stabil \u0219i fidel), c\u00eet \u0219i la Parlamentare (unde au dublat scorul \u0219i au luat 58.000). E drept c\u0103 \u00een acela\u0219i iunie 2024 \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103 candida la PMB dar ia doar 18.000 de voturi, iar excluderea ei din cursa Preziden\u021bial\u0103 e \u00een m\u0103sur\u0103 s\u0103 dubleze scorul partidului s\u0103u la Parlamentare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Sigur c\u0103 Makaveli nu e \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103 \u0219i probabil nici nu e sus\u021binut de SOS, dar cum rela\u021biile dintre \u0218o\u0219oac\u0103 \u0219i AUR\/Alexandrescu sunt c\u00e2t se poate de proaste, l-ar putea sus\u021bine pe numitul Zidaru m\u0103car ca s\u0103-i \u00eencurce. Dar \u00een acela\u0219i timp, lipsa din alegerile Preziden\u021biale \u0219i concuren\u021ba din zona suveranist\u0103 e posibil s\u0103 fi diluat suficient de mult scorul SOS \u00een Capital\u0103 \u00eenc\u00e2t s\u0103-l fac\u0103 irelevant.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pe procente la SOS avem a\u0219a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 2,54% (\u0218o\u0219oac\u0103, PMB iunie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai bun scor: 6,81% (Parlamentare, decembrie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-reper-pe-rpd-inainte\"><strong>REPER pe \u201eRPD<\/strong><strong>\u201d<\/strong><strong> \u00eenainte<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0218i un ultim partid de avut \u00een vedere ar fi REPER, care la fel, n-are candidat la PMB (abia l-au ales ini\u021bial pe Berceanu dar s-a retras la scurt timp). A f\u0103cut un scor bun la Europarlamentare, unde a ob\u021binut 83.000 de voturi, dar doar 52.000 la CGMB (posibil afectat de votan\u021bi mai pu\u021bini care de\u021bineau buletin\/flotant de Bucure\u0219ti)<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cens\u0103 \u00een lipsa unui candidat la Preziden\u021biale (\u00een ambele instan\u021be din 2024 \u0219i 2025), se duc \u00een cap la Parlamentare unde mai ob\u021bin doar 26.000 de voturi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u00cen 2025 conducerea partidului se disipeaz\u0103, Strugariu pleac\u0103 \u00een Rep. Moldova unde conduce INM-ul local, iar P\u00eeslaru ajunge ministru (propus de PNL) \u00een Guvernul Bolojan. Revenind, oric\u00e2t de mult ar varia (\u0219i chiar au variat) scorurile ob\u021binute de acest partid, ne putem \u00eentreba unde se va duce electoratul lor: la Ciucu? La Drul\u0103? <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La Ciceal\u0103? Doar zic, pare un <em>good bargaining opportunity<\/em> pentru ei. Pe cifre absolute \u0219i procente sunt comparabili cu SENS sau SOS.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pe procente la REPER avem a\u0219a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 3,07% (Parlament, decembrie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai bun scor: 10,78% (Europarlamentare, iunie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-vlad-gheorghe-amp-drept\"><strong>Vlad Gheorghe &amp; DREPT<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Despre Vlad Gheorghe &amp; DREPT, puteam spune c\u0103 e un alt pupil al Pre\u0219edintelui Dan, cu ni\u0219te cifre nu chiar irelevante la un moment dat, dup\u0103 ce la europarlamentare c\u00e2nd a ob\u021binut 37.000 de voturi pe persoan\u0103 fizic\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La nivel de locale, DREPT a fost prezent pe buletinul de vot doar \u00een S6, unde a ob\u021binut vreo 800 de voturi la CLS6, iar candidatul la PS6 Alex G\u00e2diu\u021b\u0103 aproximativ acela\u0219i num\u0103r de voturi infim (de\u0219i fusese viceprimar).<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>La Parlamentare a ob\u021binut doar 12.000 de voturi \u0219i cam asta e matematica. Sigur c\u0103 Vlad Gheorghe zice acum c\u0103 e independent, o fi abandonat partidul (nici nu era mare lucru acolo din punct de vedere electoral), nu \u0219tim, dar este evident c\u0103 nu vrea s\u0103 se asocieze cu scorul infim ob\u021binut la Parlamentare, unde de altfel a \u0219i candidat, fiind primul pe list\u0103 la Camera Deputa\u021bilor \u00een Bucure\u0219ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Are \u00eens\u0103 aceea\u0219i filia\u021bie politic\u0103, dar \u0219i problem\u0103 ca Ana Ciceal\u0103, de unde erau foarte apropia\u021bi de Nicu\u0219or Dan (tustrei p\u0103r\u0103sind USR-ul \u00een condi\u021bii deloc amiabile). Acum sunt oarecum abandona\u021bi \u00eentruc\u00e2t Pre\u0219edintele \u00eel sus\u021bine in\/direct pe Drul\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pe procente V.Gheorghe\/DREPT ar fi a\u0219a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<ul class=\"wp-block-list\">\n<li>Cel mai mic scor: 1,48% (Parlamentare, decembrie 2024)<\/li>\n\n\n\n<li>Cel mai bun scor: 4,81% (Europarlamentare, iunie 2024)<\/li>\n<\/ul>\n\n\n\n<h2 class=\"wp-block-heading\" id=\"h-dupa-nicu\u0219or-potopul\"><strong>Dup\u0103 Nicu\u0219or potopul?<\/strong><\/h2>\n\n\n\n<p>Nicu\u0219or nu e neap\u0103rat un performer absolut \u00een Bucure\u0219ti. Scorurile lui de la PMB (350.000) sau Preziden\u021biale Turul 1 (361.000) sunt aproape atinse \u0219i de Lasconi la Prezide\u021biale T1 din 2024 (327.000). Ceea ce demonstreaz\u0103 cam ce poate face USR \u00een combina\u021bie cu o sus\u021binere c\u00e2t-de-c\u00e2t din partea lui Nicu\u0219or, atunci c\u00eend nu candideaz\u0103 el. Iar Drul\u0103 nu e totu\u0219i Lasconi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Cipiran Ciucu, de\u0219i pe cai mari \u00een sondaje \u0219i, de ce s\u0103 nu spunem?, cu reu\u0219ite certe la nivel administrativ \u00een S6, are cel mai mare handicap politic dintre candida\u021bii cu \u0219anse \u00eenscri\u0219i \u00een curs\u0103. E sus\u021binut de un partid cu scoruri extrem de mici pe Bucure\u0219ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Din ciclul \u201cDac\u0103 dori\u021bi s\u0103 revede\u021bi\u201d este c\u00e2t se poate de probabil \u0219i posibil ca PSD s\u0103 fie din nou faultat (\u0219i finalmente \u00eenvins indirect) de o candidatur\u0103 din zona populist-suveranist\u0103, pe modelul Firea-Piedone. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>\u0218i dac\u0103 nu v\u0103 place filmul \u0103sta pesedisto-suveranist, poate sunte\u021bi fani thrillere cu Drul\u0103 care pierde victoria din cauza unui bazin electoral progresist (reprezentat de Ciceal\u0103) pe care USR nu l-a considerat relevant c\u00e2t s\u0103-l \u021bin\u0103 aproape &#8211; pe modelul USR vs. \u0218tef\u0103nu\u021b\u0103 de la Europarlamentare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Ciceal\u0103 n-are \u0219anse s\u0103 c\u00ee\u0219tige, pentru c\u0103 modelul Mamdani pe care ei \u00een\u0219i\u0219i l-au invocat la SENS e \u00een primul r\u00eend despre canvassing, door-to-door campaign, activarea unor grupuri sociale marginal(izat)e. Iar asta necesit\u0103 timp, strategie de campanie, evident bani \u0219i multe altele. Care nu exist\u0103 de niciun fel tura asta. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dar care pot exista \u00een 2028 dac\u0103 Ciceal\u0103 \u00ee\u0219i men\u021bine trendul ascendent \u0219i r\u0103m\u00een consecven\u021bi ideologic. Orice scor ob\u021binut de Ciceal\u0103 care e peste 50.000 de voturi\/5.5% e o victorie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Bazinul suveranist din Bucure\u0219ti are un maxim de 326.000. Aici e vorba de ecua\u021bia Simion la Preziden\u021biale T2 (\u0219i minim de 40.000-60.000 c\u00e2t au luat Enache&amp;\u0218o\u0219oac\u0103 respectiv AUR &amp; SOS la localele de anul trecut).<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Care maxim nu e suficient nici m\u0103car \u00eentr-un sistem electoral cu dou\u0103 tururi. \u00centr-un singur tur e pur \u0219i simplu pulverizat de \u00eemp\u0103r\u021birea voturilor \u00eentre Alexandrescu-Makaveli din care se mai \u00eenfrupt\u0103 \u0219i B\u0103lu\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>Rom\u00e2nia TV o toac\u0103 sear\u0103 de sear\u0103 pe Alexandrescu. Realitatea r\u0103spunde pe m\u0103sur\u0103, dar nu d\u0103 \u00een B\u0103lu\u021b\u0103 chiar a\u0219a de tare. Nu \u0219tiu ce \u00een\u021belege publicul acestor dou\u0103 posturi TV din acest caft, r\u0103m\u00e2ne s\u0103 vedem pe 7 decembrie.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Dintre to\u021bi candida\u021bii c\u00e2t de c\u00e2t vizibili, singurul pe un trend descendent este Vlad Gheorghe, f\u0103r\u0103 \u0219anse reale. Nu e prins \u00een niciun sondaj, nu face campanie \u00een strad\u0103, \u0219i ne putem \u00eentreba, iar\u0103\u0219i, cum face rost de 20.000 de semn\u0103turi necesare pentru a candida.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>Pare s\u0103-l atace doar pe Drul\u0103 \u00een aceste ultime dou\u0103 s\u0103pt\u0103m\u00e2ni, ceea ce ridic\u0103 ni\u0219te semne de \u00eentrebare legitime a propos de scopul real al candidaturii sale. <\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>N-are ideologie, se dezice de propriul partid \u0219i se prezint\u0103 cu ideea singular\u0103 a desfiin\u021b\u0103rii sectoarelor &amp; a jude\u021bului Ilfov. Ideea nu e deloc nou\u0103, USR are \u0219i un proiect de lege \u00een acest sens, de prin 2017-2018, scris\/coordonat de Roxana Wring \u00een acele vremuri pline de av\u00e2nt politic reformist.<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p>A\u0219adar, ordinea celor mai mici scoruri (s\u0103 zicem) politice ob\u021binute \u00een Bucure\u0219ti \u00een ultimii doi an \u0219i sus\u021binerea din pole-position a partea partidelor pentru candida\u021bii la PMB arat\u0103 cam a\u0219a:<\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>1.Drul\u0103 (USR): 19,5%-<strong>36%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>2.B\u0103lu\u021b\u0103 (PSD): 15%-<strong>26,5%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>3.Alexandrescu (AUR): 12%-<strong>25%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>4.Ciucu (PNL): 6,5%-<strong>13,5%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>5.Ciceal\u0103 (SENS): 5,5%-<strong>7,5%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>6.? (REPER): 3%-<strong>11%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>7.Makaveli (SOS?): 2,5%-<strong>7%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><em>8.Gheorghe (DREPT?): 1,5%-<strong>5%<\/strong><\/em><\/p>\n\n\n\n<p><strong>CITE\u0218TE \u0218I <a href=\"https:\/\/buletin.de\/bucuresti\/editorial-dedesubturile-popririi-pe-conturile-metrorex-scandalul-alstom-scoate-la-iveala-modificarile-aberante-asupra-trenurilor-noi-impuse-de-sindicatul-din-subteran\/\">EDITORIAL | \u201eDedesubturile\u201d popririi pe conturile Metrorex. Scandalul Alstom scoate la iveal\u0103 modific\u0103rile aberante asupra trenurilor noi impuse de sindicatul din subteran<\/a><\/strong><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"<p>\u00cen momentul \u00een care vrem s\u0103 \u0219tim cum vor performa candida\u021bii dintr-o curs\u0103 electoral\u0103, ne uit\u0103m tradi\u021bional la sondaje, considerate \u00eens\u0103 prea pu\u021bin fiabile \u00een ultimii ani, sau la cotele de la pariuri. Acestea sunt prea frivole pentru unii, de\u0219i mai realiste dec\u00e2t sondajele, m\u0103car pentru c\u0103 bookmakerii au de pierdut bani dac\u0103 estimeaz\u0103 gre\u0219it. [&hellip;]<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":48,"featured_media":130639,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"open","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"_acf_changed":false,"inline_featured_image":false,"ngg_post_thumbnail":0,"footnotes":""},"categories":[6215,6994,41,5762],"tags":[363,239,17287,104,10071],"ppma_author":[24635],"class_list":["post-156989","post","type-post","status-publish","format-standard","has-post-thumbnail","hentry","category-analiza","category-stiri-2","category-editorial","category-main","tag-alegeri","tag-candidati","tag-partide","tag-pmb","tag-procente"],"acf":[],"a3_pvc":{"activated":false,"total_views":0,"today_views":0},"yoast_head":"<!-- This site is optimized with the Yoast SEO Premium plugin v27.7 (Yoast SEO v27.7) - https:\/\/yoast.com\/product\/yoast-seo-premium-wordpress\/ -->\n<title>ANALIZ\u0102 | Cifrele reci din \u201elaboratorul electoral&quot; al Capitalei: matematica partidelor pentru candida\u021bii la PMB - Buletin de Bucure\u0219ti<\/title>\n<meta name=\"description\" content=\"Cifrele reci din \u201elaboratorul electoral&quot; al Capitalei: matematica partidelor pentru candida\u021bii la PMB. 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