{"id":137757,"date":"2025-07-06T08:39:20","date_gmt":"2025-07-06T05:39:20","guid":{"rendered":"https:\/\/buletin.de\/bucuresti\/?p=137757"},"modified":"2025-07-06T19:37:48","modified_gmt":"2025-07-06T16:37:48","slug":"cafeneaua-bdb-cutremur-in-bucuresti-matei-sumbasacu-rerise-intr-un-scenariu-sumbru-ne-putem-astepta-la-peste-100-cladiri-care-sa-fie-un-potential-colaps","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/buletin.de\/bucuresti\/cafeneaua-bdb-cutremur-in-bucuresti-matei-sumbasacu-rerise-intr-un-scenariu-sumbru-ne-putem-astepta-la-peste-100-cladiri-care-sa-fie-un-potential-colaps\/","title":{"rendered":"Cafeneaua BdB | Cutremur \u00een Bucure\u0219ti. Matei Sumbasacu, Re:Rise: \u201e\u00centr-un scenariu sumbru, ne putem a\u0219tepta la peste 100 cl\u0103diri care s\u0103 fie un poten\u021bial colaps\u201d"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

Cutremur \u00een Bucure\u0219ti. \u201eCum ar ar\u0103ta Capitala \u00een cazul unui seism similar celui din 1977? C\u00e2te vie\u021bi omene\u0219ti se vor pierde? Sunt \u00een siguran\u021b\u0103 acas\u0103, la locul de munc\u0103, pe strad\u0103? Familia mea este \u00een siguran\u021b\u0103?\u201d – sunt \u00eentreb\u0103ri fire\u0219ti pe care ni le punem cu to\u021bii, atunci c\u00e2nd ne g\u00e2ndim la aceast\u0103 calamitate natural\u0103.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0218i, de\u0219i ne-am dori s\u0103 avem r\u0103spunsuri certe, clare, nimeni nu poate \u0219ti cu siguran\u021b\u0103 c\u00e2nd va avea loc urm\u0103torul seism major, c\u00e2te cl\u0103diri vor c\u0103dea sau c\u00e2\u021bi oameni vor fi prin\u0219i sub d\u0103r\u00e2m\u0103turi. Poate de aceea \u0219i prefer\u0103m s\u0103 evit\u0103m subiectul sau s\u0103 ne spunem fel \u0219i fel de pove\u0219ti despre c\u00e2t de sigur\u0103 este locuin\u021ba \u00een care dormim, noapte de noapte.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Un lucru este cert. Mo\u0219tenirea vulnerabilit\u0103\u021bii seismice \u00eenc\u0103 ne apas\u0103, la 48 ani de c\u00e2nd Nicolae Ceau\u0219escu a dispus sistarea prematur\u0103 a tuturor lucr\u0103rilor de consolidare a cl\u0103dirilor, afectate de cutremurul din \u201977. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Atunci, 56 de secunde de trepida\u021bii ale solului au fost suficiente pentru a ucide aproape 1.600 de oameni, cei mai mul\u021bi \u00een Capital\u0103. Al\u021bi peste 11.300 au fost r\u0103ni\u021bi.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cu un fond construit mai vulnerabil \u0219i o dezvoltare imobiliar\u0103 haotic\u0103, scenariile pentru Capital\u0103 arat\u0103 \u0219i mai sumbru, explic\u0103 Matei Sumbasacu, inginer specializat pe cutremure \u0219i fondator al Asocia\u021biei pentru Reducerea Riscului Seismic – Re:Rise<\/a>.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/div><\/div>\n\n\n\n

\"\"
Matei Sumbasacu, inginer specializat pe cutremure \u0219i fondator al Asocia\u021biei pentru Reducerea Riscului Seismic – Re:Rise<\/a>.<\/strong> Foto: Inquam Photos \/ M\u0103lina Norocea<\/strong><\/figcaption><\/figure>\n\n\n\n
\n\n\n\n

Buletin de Bucure\u0219ti: Cum ar ar\u0103ta Bucure\u0219tiul acum, \u00een cazul unui cutremur similar cu cel din 1977?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Matei Sumbasacu, Re:Rise:<\/strong> Putem s\u0103 ne g\u00e2ndim care era fondul construit vulnerabil \u00een 1977: cl\u0103dirile ridicate \u00eenainte de anii 1940 \u0219i avariate la cutremurul din ’40 \u0219i cl\u0103dirile construite \u00eentre 1940 \u0219i 1977, unde a fost o mic\u0103 problem\u0103 de proiectare.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Am v\u0103zut c\u0103 primele au reprezentat o mare parte din bilan\u021bul final al cl\u0103dirilor colapsate, c\u0103ci 30 dintre cele 32 cl\u0103diri pr\u0103bu\u0219ite \u00een Capital\u0103 fuseser\u0103 afectate la cutremurul din ’40.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Acum, \u00een Bucure\u0219ti, avem cl\u0103dirile mai \u00eenalte, construite \u00eenainte de 1940 \u015fi afectate de cutremurele din ’40 \u0219i ’77, avem ni\u015fte cl\u0103diri oarecum gre\u015fit proiectate, construite \u00eentre 1940 \u015fi 1977 \u0219i afectate de cutremurul din ’77. Astea sunt c\u00e2teva mii.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dac\u0103 ne g\u00e2ndim c\u0103 \u00een ’40 au fost afectate grav aproximativ 300 \u0219i ceva de cl\u0103diri \u0219i din astea au picat 30, dac\u0103 acum avem c\u00e2teva mii, \u00eentr-un scenariu mai sumbru, ne putem a\u015ftepta la peste 100\/200, care s\u0103 fie un poten\u021bial colaps. Dar nu putem \u0219ti.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ce putem \u0219ti este c\u0103 nu o s\u0103 pice toate cl\u0103dirile cu bulin\u0103, o s\u0103 pice \u0219i din cl\u0103diri noi – foarte pu\u021bine – astea sunt excep\u021biile. Pentru c\u0103 lucr\u0103m mereu cu statistic\u0103, cu probabilit\u0103\u021bi, cu foarte mult\u0103 incertitudine \u00een ingineria seismic\u0103. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Evident c\u0103, statistic vorbind, principalele care vor pica vor fi cele cu bulin\u0103 sau care ar merita bulin\u0103, dar nu au fost expertizate.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

C\u00e2t de con\u015ftien\u0163i sunt bucure\u015ftenii cu privire la riscul seismic al Capitalei?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Suntem din ce \u00een ce mai con\u015ftien\u0163i<\/mark><\/strong>. Ac\u0163iunile de con\u015ftientizare, care au pornit din 2017, a\u015f zice eu, odat\u0103 cu articolul Georgianei Ilie, \u201eCutremur \u00een ora\u0219ul vulnerabil\u201d<\/a>, \u015fi care au continuat apoi prin diverse ONG-uri \u0219i institu\u021bii, \u0219i-au f\u0103cut sim\u021bit impactul. Cred c\u0103 suntem din ce \u00een ce mai mul\u021bi cet\u0103\u021beni con\u0219tien\u021bi <\/mark><\/strong>de problem\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Este adev\u0103rat, publicul este cumva segmentat. Avem genera\u021biile tinere, care nu au prins cutremurul din ’77 \u0219i care au acces la tehnologie \u0219i la surse de informare \u0219i acolo avem o deschidere mai mare fa\u021b\u0103 de subiectul riscului seismic.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cumva ironic, avem genera\u0163iile care au prins cutremurul din ’77, de la care te-ai a\u0219tepta s\u0103 fie mai con\u0219tiente, \u021bin\u00e2nd cont c\u0103 au trecut printr-o dram\u0103. Evident, exist\u0103 \u0219i oameni foarte impacta\u021bi \u00een r\u00e2ndul lor, dar \u00een acela\u0219i timp, exist\u0103 \u0219i oameni care, zeci de ani de zile, au fost victimele dezinform\u0103rilo<\/mark><\/strong>r \u0219i pove\u0219tilor pe care le-au spus unii sau \u0219i le-au spus singuri, ca s\u0103 minimizeze acest risc seismic. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0218i acolo avem o problem\u0103, pentru c\u0103, de obicei, ace\u0219ti oameni nu sunt cei mai tehnologiza\u021bi \u0219i este greu pentru noi s\u0103 ajungem la ei.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ne po\u021bi da c\u00e2teva exemple de mituri sau dezinform\u0103ri care \u00eenc\u0103 circul\u0103?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Sigur. \u00cen principal, a\u0219a ca o euristic\u0103 pentru a ne da seama dac\u0103 o poveste despre riscul nostru seismic este probabil neadev\u0103rat\u0103, este s\u0103 vedem dac\u0103 acea povestea face lucrurile s\u0103 par\u0103 mai roz dec\u00e2t sunt de fapt. \u00cen principal, se leag\u0103 de rezisten\u021ba cl\u0103dirilor sau de posibilitatea venirii unui cutremur \u00een Bucure\u0219ti.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Probabil cel mai r\u0103sp\u00e2ndit este mitul cl\u0103dirilor construite pe role sau pe bile<\/mark><\/strong>, care zice c\u0103 sub funda\u021bia cl\u0103dirilor ar fi un sistem de role care le-ar face invulnerabile la mi\u0219carea p\u0103m\u00e2ntului. Practic, p\u0103m\u00e2ntul se mi\u0219c\u0103 sub ele, dar ele nu se mi\u0219c\u0103 odat\u0103 cu p\u0103m\u00e2ntul, pentru c\u0103 alunec\u0103 pe acele role. Vestea proast\u0103 pentru rom\u00e2ni este c\u0103 acest sistem nu exist\u0103 la cl\u0103dirile construite \u00eenainte de ’77, nic\u0103ieri \u00een \u021bar\u0103.<\/strong><\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Mai exist\u0103 mitul cl\u0103dirii care trebuia s\u0103 aib\u0103 zece etaje, s\u0103 zicem, s-a oprit dezvoltatorul la etajul patru<\/mark><\/strong>, dar structura este a unui bloc de zece etaje. Iar\u0103\u0219i, acesta este un mit, \u00een special la cl\u0103dirile vechi, dar \u0219i la cele noi, pentru c\u0103 un dezvoltator nu se opre\u0219te \u00eenainte.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Fiecare etaj \u00eenseamn\u0103 bani pentru dezvoltator, deci nu exist\u0103 construc\u021bii oprite \u00eenainte de num\u0103rul de etaje care a fost autorizat, mai ales dac\u0103 i-a preg\u0103tit sistemul structural pentru mai multe etaje.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Un alt mit foarte r\u0103sp\u00e2ndit este mitul cl\u0103dirilor care au trecut prin cutremur \u00een Bucure\u0219ti \u0219i atunci au fost deja \u201etestate\u201d, deci am mai mult\u0103 \u00eencredere \u00een ele. <\/mark><\/strong>Aceast\u0103 nara\u021biune este foarte nociv\u0103, spune dou\u0103 neadev\u0103ruri \u00eentr-unul singur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen primul r\u00e2nd, o cl\u0103dire – din proiectare – cu c\u00e2t este mai nou\u0103, cu at\u00e2t \u00eenglobeaz\u0103 mai multe cuno\u0219tin\u021be despre cutremure, c\u0103ci \u0219i aceste cuno\u0219tin\u021be evolueaz\u0103. Noi nici acum nu \u0219tim foarte multe lucruri despre cutremure, dar\u0103mite \u00een anii ’40 sau ’60. \u0218i atunci, din proiectare, o cl\u0103dire nou\u0103 este mai preg\u0103tit\u0103 pentru cutremur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen al doilea r\u00e2nd, orice cl\u0103dire este afectat\u0103 de cutremur. Ea este f\u0103cut\u0103 s\u0103 fie afectat\u0103 de cutremur, este necesar ca o cl\u0103dire s\u0103 aib\u0103 fisuri \u0219i avarii \u00een timpul unui cutremur, ca s\u0103 disipeze energie.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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\u0218i atunci un cutremur \u00een via\u021ba unei cl\u0103diri nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 dec\u00e2t c\u0103 este mai aproape de limita ei de colaps.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

De fapt, avem \u0219i dovezi empirice \u00een acest sens: \u00een ’77 din cele 32 de cl\u0103diri care au picat \u00een Bucure\u015fti, 30 fuseser\u0103 avariate \u00een 1940 <\/b><\/mark>\u0219i l\u0103sate neconsolidate<\/mark><\/strong>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ar mai fi mitul securistului<\/mark><\/strong>, c\u0103 a stat cineva \u201eimportant\u201d pe scara respectiv\u0103 \u0219i atunci blocul este f\u0103cut pentru oameni diploma\u021bi, securi\u0219ti sau militari.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Vestea proast\u0103 este c\u0103, mai ales \u00een centrul Bucure\u0219tiului, cam \u00een orice bloc mai st\u0103tea vreun securist. \u0218i a doua veste proast\u0103 este c\u0103 ace\u0219ti oameni, cu putere politic\u0103 \u0219i cu autoritate \u00een comunicarea din comunitatea lor, au r\u0103sp\u00e2ndit foarte des astfel de mituri, f\u0103r\u0103 s\u0103 vrea, de multe ori.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ei erau principalii agen\u021bi de dezinformare, dac\u0103 vorbim de securi\u0219ti, \u0219i de multe ori r\u0103sp\u00e2ndeau mituri precum \u201eNu are cum, nu ne l\u0103sa Ceau\u0219escu a\u0219a, acest bloc este ca un bunc\u0103r, dac\u0103 nu l-au consolidat total, \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 nu trebuia consolidat\u201d – nu neap\u0103rat av\u00e2nd o agend\u0103 \u00een acest sens, dar pur \u0219i simplu, ei erau primii oameni c\u0103rora nu le venea s\u0103 cread\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Toat\u0103 via\u021ba lor era format\u0103 \u00een jurul faptului c\u0103 Ceau\u0219escu este salvatorul \u0219i unicul conduc\u0103tor \u0219i atunci orice f\u0103cea Ceau\u0219escu era justificat, chiar dac\u0103 poate nu \u00een\u021belegeau pe moment. Av\u00e2nd aceast\u0103 \u00eencredere oarb\u0103, au \u00eenceput s\u0103-\u0219i ra\u021bionalizeze alegerea \u0219i s\u0103 ra\u021bionalizeze alegerea lui Ceau\u0219escu de a ne l\u0103sa \u00een vulnerabilitate seismic\u0103 dup\u0103 1977.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Astea ar fi principalele mituri, mai sunt multe, de pild\u0103 mitul proiectului japonez.<\/mark><\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Referitor la mitul cl\u0103dirilor \u201eantrenate\u201d de cutremur \u00een Bucure\u0219ti, crezi c\u0103 de aici vine reticen\u021ba oamenilor de a se muta \u00eentr-un bloc nou? <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cum am zis mai devreme, cuno\u0219tin\u021bele inginere\u0219ti devin mai bune \u0219i atunci, din proiectare, cl\u0103dirile mai noi sunt mai preg\u0103tite pentru cutremur.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Din execu\u021bie, deci c\u00e2t de bine se transfer\u0103 proiectul \u00een realitate – este cea de-a doua component\u0103 care d\u0103 rezisten\u021ba unei cl\u0103diri. Aici este o discu\u021bie, calitatea \u00een execu\u021bie<\/mark> variaz\u0103 \u00een func\u021bie de mul\u021bi factori, \u00een func\u021bie de pia\u021b\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

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Dac\u0103 se construie\u0219te mult, inerent este mai greu de controlat ce se construie\u0219te \u0219i atunci vor ap\u0103rea lipsuri, vor ap\u0103rea caren\u021be. Totu\u0219i, at\u00e2t de mult a avansat proiectarea seismic\u0103, \u00een special dup\u0103 cutremurul din ’77, \u00eenc\u00e2t chiar \u0219i cu o calitate \u00een execu\u021bie foarte proast\u0103, cl\u0103dirile noi tot sunt net superioare, ca rezisten\u021b\u0103 seismic\u0103, unora construite \u00eenainte de anii ’70-’80.<\/p>\n<\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

Este adev\u0103rat, pentru omul de r\u00e2nd este mai greu s\u0103 perceap\u0103 rezisten\u021ba seismic\u0103. Este mai la \u00eendem\u00e2n\u0103 s\u0103 perceap\u0103 probleme legate de finisaje sau instala\u021bii, precum \u201eAud la vecinul\u201d sau \u201e\u00cemi picur\u0103 ap\u0103, mi se ud\u0103 pere\u021bii\u201d. \u0218i atunci, omul extrapoleaz\u0103 \u0219i zice \u201ecl\u0103dirile noi sunt mai proaste \u00een general\u201d, dar asta este o gre\u0219eal\u0103.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00centr-adev\u0103r, dac\u0103 ne uit\u0103m la cl\u0103dirile interbelice, de multe ori, calitatea finisajelor \u0219i chiar \u0219i a instala\u021biilor este net superioar\u0103, fa\u021b\u0103 de cea a cl\u0103dirilor de ast\u0103zi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Dar nu instala\u021bia \u021bine o cl\u0103dire la cutremur, sistemul structural <\/mark>o \u021bine. <\/strong>\u0218i din punct de vedere al sistemului structural, nu exist\u0103 compara\u021bie \u00eentre o cl\u0103dire interbelic\u0103 sau o cl\u0103dire f\u0103cut\u0103 \u00een anii `60-70 \u0219i o cl\u0103dire f\u0103cut\u0103 \u00een zilele noastre.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Ne po\u0163i da c\u00e2teva sfaturi pentru cei care sunt \u00een c\u0103utarea unei locuin\u0163e?<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cum am zis, o cl\u0103dire nou\u0103 este mai bun\u0103, dar asta nu \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 toate cl\u0103dirile vechi sunt proaste. Totu\u0219i, dac\u0103 se duc s\u0103-\u0219i cumpere sau s\u0103-\u0219i \u00eenchirieze \u00eentr-un imobil construit \u00eenainte de 1978, a\u0219 recomanda s\u0103 se duc\u0103 al\u0103turi de un expert tehnic<\/mark><\/strong>, deci un inginer care \u0219tie construc\u021bii vechi. Sunt mul\u021bi ingineri constructori \u0219i arhitec\u021bi care nu sunt familiari cu construc\u021biile vechi.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u00cen ceea ce prive\u0219te cl\u0103dirile noi, exist\u0103 aceast\u0103 tendin\u021b\u0103 s\u0103 se construiasc\u0103 parcare sau spa\u021bii comerciale mai mari la parterul cl\u0103dirii \u0219i asta, prin conformarea cl\u0103dirii, induce posibilitatea ca parterul s\u0103 fie mai pu\u021bin rigid ca etajele superioare. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

\u0218i atunci, deplas\u0103rile \u00een cazul unui cutremur vor fi concentrate la parter \u0219i exist\u0103 riscul unui mecanism de cedare care se nume\u0219te mecanismul de parter flexibil<\/mark><\/strong>. Practic, \u00eenseamn\u0103 c\u0103 cedeaz\u0103 parterul \u0219i etajul 1 devine parter \u0219i poate antrena un colaps de tip sandvi\u0219. <\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

E adev\u0103rat, aici este oarecum discutabil, proiectan\u021bii \u00ee\u0219i iau m\u0103suri de precau\u021bie, dar este greu s\u0103 te lup\u021bi cu o conformare defectuoas\u0103 a unei cl\u0103diri. Deci dac\u0103 cl\u0103direa este a\u0219a conformat\u0103, nu este deloc de exclus s\u0103 apar\u0103 acest fenomen.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Cutremur \u00een Bucure\u0219ti. \u201eCum ar ar\u0103ta Capitala \u00een cazul unui seism similar celui din 1977? C\u00e2te vie\u021bi omene\u0219ti se vor pierde? Sunt \u00een siguran\u021b\u0103 acas\u0103, la locul de munc\u0103, pe strad\u0103? Familia mea este \u00een siguran\u021b\u0103?\u201d – sunt \u00eentreb\u0103ri fire\u0219ti pe care ni le punem cu to\u021bii, atunci c\u00e2nd ne g\u00e2ndim la aceast\u0103 calamitate natural\u0103. 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CITE\u0218TE \u0218I:<\/strong> REPORTAJ | \u201eCutremurul ne\u0219tiut\u201d, spectacolul de teatru care reconstituie \u0219edin\u021ba care ne-a alterat prezentul<\/strong><\/a><\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"